Predict not the event,
predict when belief flips.
The first decentralized market for time-shifted belief dynamics. Trade on the timing of sentiment shifts, probability thresholds, and model convergence.
Most prediction markets stay static.
Preda captures the journey. We reframe prediction from outcome betting to mapping the moment consensus moves.
Time-shifted markets resolve on consensus inflection points, not just terminal outcomes.
Volatility-aware settlement bridges the gap between discrete outcomes and continuous belief state transitions.
Modular oracles support sentiment analysis, probability thresholds, and AI model consensus signals.
Market Structures
Preda supports diverse belief-focused market designs, allowing precise expression of timing uncertainty.
Sentiment Transition
Predict when aggregated sentiment crosses a sustained threshold, like flipping from neutral to bullish.
Probability Threshold
Markets that track when aggregated probabilistic forecasts exceed or fall below defined levels.
Model Consensus
Resolve based on agreement metrics across AI models. Predict convergence or divergence.
Narrative Velocity
Focus on the speed of belief change. Trade on when topic attention accelerates beyond baselines.
Try Preda SDK
for free
Choose framework
Install Preda
Include the following dependency
Set Preda API key
Initialize Client
use preda_sdk::prelude::*;
// Initialize Client
let client = PredaClient::new(
Network::SolanaMainnet,
std::env::var("PREDA_API_KEY")?
);Roadmap
Building the infrastructure to measure, price, and analyze belief transitions.
Establish belief dynamics as a first-class on-chain object.
- Belief State Index (BSI) Core
- Initial Sentiment Oracles
- Time-Bucketed Engine
- Solana Deployment
Encode uncertainty about when belief changes occur.
- Volatility-Adjusted Payouts
- Persistence Logic
- News & Narrative Oracles
- Historical Replay
Make belief dynamics observable and interpretable.
- Reflexivity Visualization
- Market-Implied Timing
- Narrative Velocity Maps
- Research Dashboards
Extend Preda into a belief research infrastructure.
- Modular Oracle Plug-ins
- Cross-Domain Indices
- AI-Native Belief Signals
- Experimental Formats